The strategy behind the US Elections

The strategy behind the US Elections

Upcoming Tuesday, November 5, the 60th presidential election will take place in the United States. After this day, the key to the White House will either go to Democratic nominee Kamala Harris or Republican nominee Donald Trump. While the outcome depends on debate performances, campaign issues, or simply luck, the right campaign strategy might be the most crucial factor. Since campaign strategies are largely data-driven, let's examine the pivotal role econometricians could play in this election and how concepts like game theory might also be relevant.

First, let us look at likely one of the most thoroughly explained topic of all time: the Electoral College. The president is chosen based on a majority of electoral votes, awarded to the candidate who wins the popular vote within each state. This winner-takes-all principle makes for far more competitive elections. In The Netherlands, a one-percent shift in voting behavior would barely make a difference. In the U.S., however, a one-percent change in a single state could alter the entire outcome of the election.

The infamous 2000 presidential election was decided by just 537 votes. George W. Bush beat Al Gore in Florida by this margin, thereby winning the presidency. In total, more than 100 million votes were cast in that election, meaning that the result was determined by only 0.0005% of the total votes. With such small margins in mind, even the tiniest shifts could be critical.

The small margin in Florida led to numerous recounts.

In many states, outcomes are largely predictable based on demographic factors like average education levels and the proportion of the population residing in rural areas. However, certain states remain competitive and are known as "swing states." In the 2024 election, most sources identify seven key swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Both candidates know that they have little to gain or lose in non-swing states and therefore focus the bulk of their resources on swing states to sway undecided voters.

The seven swing states that will most likely decide the 2024 presidential election.

Now that we understand why it’s crucial to concentrate resources on swing states, a more advanced question remains: how exactly should this be done? Since there are countless strategies, we can break down a successful approach into two components. First, what are the most effective channels for persuading voters, and how can these be identified? Second, how should resources be distributed across these channels?

Campaign teams can leverage both manpower and money. Volunteers might be deployed to encourage registered party supporters to vote, or to conduct personal, door-to-door campaigns aimed at persuading undecided voters. The optimal strategy typically involves a balanced investment in both efforts. Campaigns can also acquire massive amounts of personal data through voter files and by purchasing data on income levels and consumer patterns. This data helps to target voters more effectively. This can be done by understanding the issues important to specific voters, which allows campaigns to tailor messaging to them. Moreover, through the creation of predictive models, parties will not have to spend resources on strongly convinced Democratic and Republican voters, as that will not change their vote. Money, too, can be deployed through various channels, including television and social media ads. Once again, data is analyzed to find the right balance between the possible channels. However, compared to door-to-door campaigns, audience targeting is limited by companies such as Google. 

Total ad spending vs. polling margin by state in 2024, as of September 16. (Source: Financial Times)

Given the numerous potential approaches to allocating resources, it is essential that political parties identify the optimal strategy. One option is to distribute resources evenly across all swing states. Alternatively, a party could concentrate its efforts on just five of the seven swing states, as securing five would suffice to win the presidency. However, this approach entails greater risk. The objective is to target the states with the narrowest margins, allowing the party to allocate funds effectively and avoid overspending, thus preserving resources for additional swing states.

Complicating matters, parties generally have limited insight into their opponents’ strategies. Here, game theory becomes particularly relevant. While polling data gradually becomes available and provides insights into the opposition’s tactics, enabling adjustments over time, parties must still devise a preliminary strategy. Forward planning is essential, and game theory will inevitably influence strategic decisions.

To develop an optimal campaign strategy, both parties rely on large teams of data scientists and other experts. The first significant use of data-driven strategies, like national voter files, was during Barack Obama’s 2008 campaign. The success of this approach led to an increasingly sophisticated application of data science in subsequent campaigns. Today, parties often hire political consulting firms to handle this work. Interestingly, most consulting firms are known to serve either Democratic or Republican campaigns exclusively.

So far, we've focused on the presidential election, but two other critical federal elections also occur: those for the Senate and the House of Representatives, collectively referred to as Congress. The election processes for these seats differ from the presidential election, and because Congress wields significant power, campaign teams must also devise strategic plans and allocate resources to these races. 

As Election Day draws near, we will witness the culmination of both parties' strategic efforts. According to the latest polls, the race is expected to be extremely close, with voter turnout and polling accuracy poised to play decisive roles. Behind the scenes, vast data-driven operations are in full force, from predictive models to real-time polling adjustments. Just as the Electoral College dictates the election's mathematical foundation, data analytics and precise resource allocation drive each campaign's tactical moves, proving that in U.S. politics, winning the presidency is ultimately a numbers game.

Sources:
Reuters
Financial Times
Vox